Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.3)
(118)
39,714
Nifty
(0.2)
(24)
11,922
US stocks showed a substantial move back to the downside during trading on
Mid Cap
(0.8)
(126)
15,001
Friday. With the sell-off on the day, the Dow dropped to a four-month closing low,
while the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit their lowest closing levels in well over two
Small Cap
(0.6)
(86)
14,934
months. The Dow tumbled 1.4 percent to 24,815 and the Nasdaq plunged 1.5
Bankex
(1.1)
(412)
35,186
percent to 7,453.
U.K. stocks fell on Friday as weak manufacturing data from China as well as the
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
latest announcement of U.S. tariffs on Mexico raised fresh concerns about the global
Dow Jones
(1.4)
(355)
24,815
growth outlook. FTSE 100 was down by 1.1 percent at 7,144.
Nasdaq
(1.5)
(115)
7,453
On domestic front, Indian shares hit record highs in early trade Friday before
FTSE
(1.1)
(75)
7,144
reversing direction to end modestly lower on the back of weak global cues.
The
Nikkei
(1.6)
(342)
20,601
benchmark BSE Sensex was down by 0.3 percent to 39,714.
Hang Seng
(0.8)
(214)
26,901
Shanghai Com
(0.3)
(8)
2,898
News Analysis
Retail loan growth slows down to 15.7% in April 2019 from 19% April 2018
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
996
639
Declines
1,592
1,191
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Unchanged
149
100
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Volumes (` Cr)
Refer Pg5 onwards
BSE
2,891
Top Picks
NSE
31,572
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods Accumulate
806
867
7.5
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
ICICI Bank
Financials
Accumulate
423
460
8.6
FII
2,703
8,832
79,535
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
241
330
37.0
*MFs
(1,405)
4,645
1,212
Bata India
Others
Buy
1,324
1,608
21.5
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
524
612
16.7
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
330
10.1
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
362
6.5
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
202
5.7
May 13, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
1,143
5.6
May 14, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
1,516
5.5
May 16, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
May 17, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
May 17, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Events on Pg7
98
-16.3
51
-9.9
46
-8.5
49
-8.1
184
-7.1
As on May 31, 2019
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
News Analysis
Retail loan growth slows down to 15.7% in April 2019 from 19%
April 2018
The pace of credit expansion in retail segment covering areas like housing, credit
card and personal loans slowed down in April, perhaps reflecting moderation in
India’s economic growth. Retail loans grew by 15.7 per cent (Year-on-Year) in
April 2019, down from increase of 19.1 per cent in April 2018. Credit card loans
rose by 26.4 per cent in April 2019, down from 35.2 per cent in same month in
showing further traction with 18.6 per cent in April 2019, up from 14.9 per cent in
April 2019. The vehicle loan disbursement saw moderation in first month of new
financial year. The pace of loan growth slowed down to 4.9 per cent in April 19
cent in April 2018 as against 35.5 per cent in April 2018, according to RBI data.
In contrast to retail segment, the credit to industry saw a pick up lending. It posted
6.9 per cent growth in April 2019 as compared with an increase of 1.0 per cent in
April 2018. The credit to the services sector expanded by 16.8 per cent in April
2019 as compared with an increase of 20.7 per cent in April 2018. On a year-on-
as compared with an increase of 10.7 per cent in April 2018.
Economic and Political News
Urban unemployment rate at 9.7% in Q3CY18, reveals NSSO report
Retail loan growth slows down to 15.7% in April 2019 from 19% April 2018
GDP growth slips to five-year low on slowdown in investment, manufacturing
Growth of core sector slumps to 2.6% in April on sluggish infra performance
Corporate News
Siva group gave dud shares of Tata Teleservices for funds from IFIN
Hinduja Global Solutions to focus on India, counter Brexit factor in UK
Tata Steel SEZ performs ground breaking ceremony for tea packing unit
SBI General Insurance sets target of 30% spike in premium collection
Airtel posts 19% jump in ARPU after removing low-paying users from network
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
7,766
806
867
7.5
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,73,046
423
460
8.6
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
4,138
524
612
16.7
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,604
58
95
63.8
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,622
346
606
75.1
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,07,337
6,864
10,820
57.6
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,402
260
424
62.9
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,472
659
1,000
51.7
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
21,772
99
151
52.7
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,026
241
330
37.0
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
6,60,796
2,425
2,500
3.1
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
80,447
647
1,050
62.3
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,624
834
984
17.9
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
17,013
1,324
1,608
21.5
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
26,325
1,160
1,764
52.0
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
16,230
160
327
104.7
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,845
1,262
1,400
10.9
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
39,417
673
890
32.3
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
29,326
686
763
11.2
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
9,881
7,129
9,250
29.8
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,571
71
120
69.5
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
26,097
89
156
75.5
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,426
258
360
39.8
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,824
1,222
2,178
78.2
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,747
2,203
2,500
13.5
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,988
162
256
57.9
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
26,804
134
210
56.7
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
34,278
148
290
96.0
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
May 16, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
May 17, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
May 17, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
May 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 21, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
May 24, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
May 25, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
May 26, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
May 28, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 30, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
June 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
June 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
June 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
June 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
June 09, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
June 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
June 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
95,415
-0.2
8.6
11.8
Russia
Micex
2,497
0.5
5.4
10.0
India
Nifty
11,624
7.7
7.0
14.9
China
Shanghai Composite
3,091
5.1
23.9
-2.2
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
25,929
0.1
11.2
7.6
UK
FTSE
7,279
2.4
8.2
-1.6
Japan
Nikkei
21,206
-1.8
-6.0
-1.2
Germany
DAX
11,526
-0.7
9.2
-4.7
France
CAC
5,351
2.1
13.1
-2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
June 03, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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